Sunday, November 13, 2011

2012 Dodgers' prospect lists from others thus far

With Baseball America releasing its top 10 Dodgers' prospects on Dec. 2, folks are already in the prospect-ranking mood. No word on when Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball or Fan Graphs will release its prospect lists, but those are also highly anticipated.

I want to give folks a primer before I release my Top 50 list on Nov. 21.

With the Dodgers graduating Rubby De La Rosa, Scott Elbert, Dee Gordon, Kenley Jansen, Trayvon Robinson (traded), Jerry Sands, the system overall is significantly weaker. I'll go further into detail in my Top 50 post.

Here are some lists from reputable prospectors. I'll post just the Top 10. Click through the links to see their entire lists:

J.P. Schwartz, Top Prospect Alert (Top 15)
  1. Zach Lee
  2. Allen Webster
  3. Chris Reed
  4. Alfredo Silverio
  5. Garrett Gould
  6. Derek Cone
  7. Scott McGough
  8. Joc Pederson
  9. Jesus Valdez
  10. Shawn Tolleson
Jared Massey, L.A. Dodger Report (Top 20)
  1. Zach Lee
  2. Allen Webster
  3. Nathan Eovaldi
  4. Angel Sanchez
  5. Joc Pederson
  6. Garrett Gould
  7. Shawn Tolleson
  8. Alex Castellanos
  9. Chris Reed
  10. Alfredo Silverio
Colobrowns, via Dodger Message Board (Top 20)
  1. Zach Lee
  2. Allen Webster
  3. Nathan Eovaldi
  4. Joc Pederson
  5. Garrett Gould
  6. Javy Guerra (technically not a prospect anymore)
  7. Scott Van Slyke
  8. Josh Lindblom
  9. Blake Smith
  10. Chris Withrow
Speedy8, via Dodger Message Board (Top 25)
  1. Zach Lee
  2. Nathan Eovaldi
  3. Chris Reed
  4. Joc Pederson
  5. Allen Webster
  6. James Baldwin
  7. Garrett Gould
  8. Chris Withrow
  9. Aaron Miller
  10. Tim Federowicz
CanuckDodger, via True Blue L.A. (Top 30)
  1. Nathan Eovaldi
  2. Allen Webster
  3. Zach Lee
  4. Garrett Gould
  5. Joc Pederson
  6. Javy Guerra (technically not a prospect anymore)
  7. Tim Federowicz
  8. Josh Lindblom
  9. Angel Sanchez
  10. Scott Van Slyke
As you can see, there's a wide variety in the rankings. Let me breakdown each one with my thoughts.

This list is the biggest head-scratcher. The first five are OK in my book, but the inclusion of Cone, McGough and Valdez really confuse me. It's not bad, but it definitely isn't common.

Biggest surprise: Valdez at No. 9. I could have gone with Cone or McGough, but Valdez was the most puzzling pick. But he was a 17th-round pick in 2011 and fifth-round pick in 2010, so there is obviously talent there. His debut was short and had mixed reviews. He's definitely a raw player.

Overall, a solid Top 10. Can't argue with Lee at No. 1. The list is dominated by right-handed pitchers, with six of the top seven being righites.

Biggest surprise: Castellanos at No. 8. I know he had a great finish to the season and a great showing in the Arizona Fall League before his injury, but many scouts say he's been playing above his talent level. We'll see if it keeps up.

Lots of familiar names here. Absolutely love the aggressive ranking on Smith. He's definitely one of my favorite Dodger prospects.

Biggest surprise: Van Slyke at No. 7. He had a monster year in Double-A, but he was repeating the level and was almost too old for the competition. Still, it's hard to argue with the pure hitting ability.

There's a few guys here who aren't going to be in my Top 10, but it's nice to see variety. Reed at No. 3 is a bit high for my liking, but it's not totally unheard of. Baldwin in the Top 6 is definitely surprising, but just misses out on "biggest surprise."

Biggest surprise: Miller at No. 9. It was between him and Baldwin. Baldwin has loads of potential, while Miller hasn't been able to stay healthy. At this point, I see him more as a left-handed reliever rather than a starter.

Like the other lists, there are a lot of similar names here -- and for good reason. The Dodgers are lacking a lot of talent after graduating a lot of players. Eovaldi at No. 1 is a tad surprising, as is Lee at No. 3.

Biggest surprise: Lindblom at No. 8. He had a bounce-back season and had success in the Majors. Once the Dodgers finally abandoned the idea of him starting, he began to flourish. He isn't going to strikeout a lot of guys, but he should be a solid reliever at worst.

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