Monday, January 30, 2012

Baseball Prospectus releases its Top 20 Dodgers' prospects for 2012

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus revealed his Top 20 Dodgers' prospects today. There are a few surprises -- good and bad -- but the top three are expected.

In fact, Goldstein's top three and mine are the same. Here's the Top 20 (my rankings in parenthesis):
  1. Zach Lee (1)
  2. Nathan Eovaldi (2)
  3. Allen Webster (3)
  4. Chris Reed (19)
  5. Garrett Gould (4)
  6. Chris Withrow (12)
  7. Alfredo Silverio (11)
  8. Joc Pederson (6)
  9. Alex Castellanos (21)
  10. Angel Sanchez (5)
  11. Shawn Tolleson (8)
  12. James Baldwin (16)
  13. Tim Federowicz (30)
  14. Ethan Martin (37)
  15. Josh Lindblom (14)
  16. Aaron Miller (24)
  17. Gorman Erickson (13)
  18. Scott Van Slyke (15)
  19. Kyle Russell (43)
  20. Steve Ames (17)
Biggest surprise: Castellanos
Biggest head-scratcher(s): Federowicz and Martin

I get Reed at No. 4, as I'm not nearly as high on him as others. I hope he shuts me up with a strong 2012 with the Quakes. Castellanos cracking the Top 10 is surprising, considering he wasn't on the Cardinals' Top 30 heading into last season. It's also nice to see someone else with Sanchez rated in the Top 10. I also like seeing Erickson on there, but I think he's better than Federowicz.

Speaking of Federowicz, I still don't get the fascination with this guy. Yes, his glove is good and he should have a long career in the Majors -- but as a backup catcher. He doesn't possess a good hit tool and has minimal power at best. Baseball America ranked him No. 10 in the system. I had him at No. 30. I'm no authority, but I just don't see him being all that special.

As for Martin, I get the stuff. I really do. A mid-90s fastball and a power curveball (and plus-athleticism) is something to be excited about. However, he had those things when he was drafted more than three years ago. He simply cannot throw enough strikes to be effective (at this point in his career). I'm probably a bit harsh on him -- placing him at No. 37 -- but he doesn't belong anywhere near the Dodgers' Top 20, let alone the Top 15.

Noticeably absent are Jake Lemmerman, Blake Smith and Angelo Songco. Admittedly, I don't have a premium subscription to BP, so I can't read what Goldstein had to say, but I asked him about the trio on Twitter and this was his response:
"Wrote about Smith in piece, all 3 just missed. RT : No faith in guys like Songco, Lemmerman or B. Smith?"
I know I probably overrated them a tad, but these guys are all deserving of the Dodgers' Top 20. It isn't like there's a bunch of 4- and 5-star prospects preventing them from making it. In fact, Lee is the Dodgers' only 4-star prospect; everyone else in the Top 20 is a 3-star prospect.

A solid list overall. I know I don't get paid to do this or have access to scouts, but it's always nice to see what others think about the Dodgers' system -- especially professionals.

The BA Prospect Handbook is live, but I won't have mine until late February. Oh well, it'll give me something to write about then.


  1. Lindblom is a Major League pitcher. He's not a prospect any longer. Angelo Songco is a better prospect than any of the position players you have listed. It's not that Songco is that promising. He's just better than the others.

  2. Technically, he's still a prospect, hence his inclusions in most Dodger prospect lists.