Friday, April 13, 2012

Some fun with Dodgers' early-season projections

We all know guys aren't going to hit 96 home runs and drive in 215 runs, but it's always a little fun to look at what guys are on pace to do through the first week of the season.

Here's a look at what some Dodgers are on pace to do:


A.J. Ellis
115 walks, 119 strikeouts

Mark Ellis
162 runs, 139 hits

Andre Ethier
69 runs, 23 triples, 46 HR, 231 RBI, 115 extra base hits
- Would be the best XBH since Barry Bonds in 2001 (107) and an MLB record

Dee Gordon
116 stolen bases, 162 strikeouts
- Would be the most stolen bases since Vince Coleman in 1987 (109)

Matt Kemp
185 runs, 278 hits, 69 doubles, 46 HR, 208 RBI, zero walks, 139 strikeouts
- The hits (Ichiro Suzuki, 262) and doubles (Tris Speaker, 59) would be MLB records

James Loney
23 hits, 463 at-bats (.050 average)

Pitching (based on 33 starts for SPs)

Chad Billingsley
33-0, 236 innings, 132 hits, 16 walks 246 strikeouts

Javy Guerra
116 games, 116 innings, 116 saves, 23 hits allowed, 116 strikeouts
- The saves would crush Francisco Rodriguez's MLB record from 2008 (62)

Aaron Harang
143 innings, 230 hits, 165 walks, 199 strikeouts

Kenley Jansen
116 games, 116 innings, 23 HR allowed, zero walks, 186 strikeouts

Clayton Kershaw
165 innings, 33 walks, 16 walks, 165 strikeouts

Jamey Wright
59 innings, 88 walks

Dodger links from around the Web

Gregg Doyel of CBS Sports writes Kemp's 50-50 prediction might not be that far-fetched.
"Here's the thing about all this 50-50 talk, something that Mattingly would probably agree with even if he'd never say it:

Kemp might just do it.

I mean, really. He could do it. He's 27 years old, which means he's just now entering his prime. His best years? They should be ahead of him, not behind him. And the years behind him have been pretty damn good. Since becoming an everyday player in the big leagues at age 23 in 2008, Kemp's home-run total has gone from 18 to 26 to 28 to 39. Last year he increased his career high by 11 home runs. If he does it again this season, he's at 50. Unlikely? Sure. But not impossible. "
Jayson Stark of ESPN writes the Dodgers and Stan Kasten aren't likely to go crazy by throwing money at every big free agent.
"Don't be so quick to assume the new, improved Dodgers of Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson can't wait to start handing out the largest contracts in the history of the solar system. We're cautioning you now. That just might be a dangerous assumption.

To predict the future, you should always study the past. That's what our history teachers always told us in the seventh grade, anyway. And some of us in that class were actually awake at the time, amazingly enough.

Well, what do you find if you study Kasten's past, back in the day when he was the president of the Atlanta Braves (1986-2003) and Washington Nationals (2006-10)? You don't find a single contract that will remind you of, say, the Prince Fielder deal. We'll tell you that.

In all that time, Kasten's teams never handed out a contract longer than five years to any free agent from outside their organization. And the only six-year deal, even to one of their own players, went to Andruw Jones in 2001 -- at a time when he was 24 years old."
Meanwhile, Nomar Garciaparra and Mark Mulder, despite saying positive things about the Dodgers, have no idea what they're talking about.

Mike Petriello looks at Guerra's hot start and whether he can keep it up.

Vin Scully could return as soon as tomorrow, writes Tony Jackson of ESPN LA.

Photo credits: SD Dirk, Flickr

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